A new analysis from JPMorgan estimates total economic losses and insured losses. deadly wildfire The impact affecting Southern California is likely to be the costliest in the state’s history.
Insurance analysts at JPMorgan released a report Thursday that looked at the risks to homeowner and commercial property insurance lines in light of the wildfires that have devastated communities. los angeles area, which includes Pacific Palisades and Altadena. At least five people have died in the fire and more than 2,000 homes, businesses and other structures have been damaged or destroyed.
Reports said about 30,000 acres of land had been affected by the fire and about 15,000 homes and buildings were considered at risk as of Thursday – up from 13,000 as of Wednesday morning. Firefighters are struggling to contain the wildfire, which is being fueled by strong Santa Ana winds.
JPMorgan analysts wrote, “Expectations for economic loss from the fire have doubled since yesterday to near $50 billion, and we estimate that insured losses from the event could exceed $20 billion (and more if the fire is not controlled). If found, even more)”. “This would make this event significantly more severe than the 2018 Butte County Camp fire, the previous wildfire with the highest insured loss in California history (with insured losses of approximately $10 billion).”
The report states, “Insured losses in the Butte Camp Fire were close to two-thirds of the economic loss (about $15 billion). That event affected more than 150,000 acres and affected more than 18,000 homes/buildings. ”
The 2018 Camp Fire devastated the city of Paradise and several surrounding communities and killed 85 people. This was caused by a utility transmission line being down during a high wind event.
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JPMorgan reports that most of the damage and insured losses in the Camp Fire came from personal property damage, with 86% of losses compared to 12% for commercial property and 2% from all other lines and auto insurance.
Wildfire continues in Southern California The Camp Fire is having an impact on larger population centers than the Camp Fire, and JPMorgan analysts expect insured losses to be higher as a result.
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“Although the current wildfire has not affected very many acres or many homes/buildings (so far), much of the damage is concentrated in the affluent Pacific Palisades area, where there are high-value residential homes (median home price >$3 million vs. <$500k in Butte County),'' the analysts wrote.
“In addition, the fire is not yet contained and is spreading, meaning estimates of potential economic and insured losses are likely to increase.”