With 10 Tests left in the current World Test Championship (WTC) cycle, many teams are still in the competition, and no team is assured of a top two finish. Currently the teams stand as follows.
South Africa
Percentage: 63.33, Remaining matches: Pak (2 home)
If both Tests are drawn, South Africa will finish on 58.33. If India beats Australia 3-2 and Australia wins both Tests in Sri Lanka, both Australia (60.53) and India (58.77) can cross that figure. If South Africa lose the series 1–0, they will have to hope that Australia does not win more than two of their remaining five Test matches, or India does not win more than one win and a draw in its three remaining Test matches in Australia. Will not get it.
Sri Lanka
Percentage: 45.45, Remaining matches: Australia (2 home)
Even if Sri Lanka wins both Tests against Australia, they will still only finish on 53.85, which will then leave them at the mercy of other results, as either South Africa and India or Australia go beyond that score. Could go – India will need a win and a draw, while Australia will need two wins. For both teams to finish below 53.85, Australia would have to win the series 2–1 with two draws. For South Africa to finish below 53.85%, they would have to lose both Tests against Pakistan.
India
Percentage: 57.29, Remaining matches: Australia (3 away)
To ensure a place in the final, India need two wins and a draw in their remaining three Test matches in Australia. This would take them to 60.53% and ensure them at least second place behind South Africa, as Australia could only finish at 57.02 even with a 2-0 win in Sri Lanka. If India wins the series 3-2 they will finish at 58.77, and Australia could still finish below them if they beat Sri Lanka 1-0. Had India lost 2-3, they would have finished on 53.51, with Australia, Sri Lanka and South Africa all likely to overtake them. To qualify with that score, they would have to see South Africa lose both Tests against Pakistan, and hope Australia gets at least a draw in Sri Lanka.
Australia
Percentage: 60.71, Remaining matches: India (3 home Tests), Sri Lanka (2 away)
To secure a place in the final, Australia needs two wins in its remaining three Test matches against India. In that case (3-2 series win), even if they lose both Tests in Sri Lanka, they will finish at 55.26, which is higher than India’s 53.51 and Sri Lanka’s 53.85. With this they will secure at least second place after South Africa.
However, if they had lost 2-3, India would have reached 58.77, in which case Australia would have to win both Tests in Sri Lanka to overtake India. Otherwise, they will have to hope that South Africa do not get more than a draw against Pakistan, which would take their score to 55.56; Australia can move ahead of them with a win and a draw in Sri Lanka.
Pakistan
Percentage: 33.33, Remaining series: South Africa (2 away from home), West Indies (2 at home)
Pakistan have only a very remote, mathematical chance, which also depends on South Africa giving up over-rate points. Even after four wins from four, Pakistan would finish on 52.38, slightly lower than South Africa’s 52.78. If South Africa were to lose one point, they would fall to 52.08. Then, despite many other results going in their favour, it is still mathematically possible for Pakistan to finish second behind Australia or India. However, there is every possibility that Pakistan will be out.
new zealand, England, bangladesh And west indies Are out of the race for a place in the finals.
S Rajesh is the statistics editor of ESPNcricinfo. @rajeshstats
