With 15 Tests left in the current World Test Championship (WTC) cycle, many teams are still in the competition, and no team is assured of a top two finish. Currently the teams stand as follows.
South Africa
Percentage: 59.26, Remaining matches: Sri Lanka (1 home Test), Pakistan (2 home Test)
If South Africa beats Sri Lanka in the second Test and draws 1–1 against Pakistan, they will still finish on 61.11, but they will be assured of a place in the final as they will only have to win if they win both Tests against Sri Lanka. Will get only Rs 53.85. Australia. Thus, in that situation only one of Australia or India can overtake South Africa.
Sri Lanka
Percentage: 50.00, Remaining matches: South Africa (1 away Test), Australia (2 home Tests)
The Durban defeat means Sri Lanka can finish with a maximum of 61.54% if they win their remaining three Tests. This will still guarantee a place in the finals, as only India or Australia can finish higher. If they lose one more Test and win two, their percentage will drop to 53.85, which will then make them dependent on a number of other results. At present South Africa, India, Australia and New Zealand can go beyond 53.85.
new zealand
Percentage: 50.00, Remaining Matches: Eng (2 Home)
India
Percentage: 61.11, Remaining matches: Australia (4 away)
However, these scenarios are based on other teams maximizing their points. If that doesn’t happen, India can still make it with very few points. If, for example, these results are from the major upcoming series:
- India lost to Australia 2-3
- New Zealand played a 1-1 draw with England
- South Africa drew both its remaining series 1-1 against Sri Lanka and Pakistan at home
- Australia played a 0-0 draw with Sri Lanka
Australia will remain on top with 58.77, but India’s 53.51 will still be enough for second place ahead of South Africa (52.78), New Zealand (52.38) and Sri Lanka (51.28). Thus, where India finishes also depends on how other results pan out.
Australia
Percentage: 57.69, Remaining matches: India (4 home Tests), Sri Lanka (2 away)
The defeat in Perth means Australia will have to do a lot to finish in the top two without being dependent on other results. Given that both South Africa and Sri Lanka could finish above 61%, Australia needs four wins and a draw in their last six to move ahead of Sri Lanka’s maximum of 61.54%; In this case only South Africa, with a maximum of 69.44, could stay ahead of them.
Had India won the ongoing series 3-2, Australia could still be ahead of them, but only if they win the series against Sri Lanka 2-0. In this case, Australia would finish at 60.53, slightly ahead of India’s 58.77. In that case, they will definitely finish in the top two, as only South Africa can go further.
Pakistan
Percentage: 33.33, Remaining series: South Africa (2 away from home), West Indies (2 at home)
There has been some improvement in Pakistan’s domestic form, but it has come too late this cycle. If they win each of their remaining four Tests, they will finish on 52.38. In such a case, they will still need a number of results to stay in contention. For example, if Sri Lanka loses 0-1 in South Africa and draws 1-1 against Australia, India loses 1-2 in Australia, and New Zealand loses 1-2 against England. If this happens, Pakistan’s 52.38 will be enough for second place. Behind Australia.
England
Percentage: 43.75, Remaining matches: New Zealand (2 away)
With England’s win in Christchurch, his percentage has increased slightly to 43.75. It is almost certain that this will not be enough for qualification, although if several other results go their way there is a mathematical possibility of finishing second at 48.86: if India do not get more than 13 points from their remaining games, upper The limits are six and 16 for South Africa and Sri Lanka respectively, yet England can still finish second behind Australia.
bangladesh And west indies Are out of the running for a place in the top two.
S Rajesh is the statistics editor of ESPNcricinfo. @rajeshstats
