The Guiuan port container in Chongking, China is waiting for a pile of coal at the container terminal.
Cfoto | Future publication | Getty images
The world will never be able to release its grip on coal soon.
“Nothing can destroy coal,” US President Donald Trump Said on recent world economic platform“No weather, no bombs.”
Coal export The world’s most dirty fossil fuel is constantly increasing to meet the growing global demand, even though its domestic consumption has declined.
At its top, the world’s coal capacity reached a high level of about 2,175 gigawatts in 2024, The data of Global Energy Monitor was shown on 6 February. Coal capacity is overall power generation that can be generated from coal -powered power plants.
“Global change away from coal is challenging, inspired by growing demand in Asia, even Europe and America see a significant decline in coal consumption,” said Dorothy Mei, project manager of global coal mine tracker at Global Energy Monitor’s Global Energy Monitor.
Global coal demand is also expected to dissolve another fresh record high of 8.77 billion tonnes in 2024, and will remain at the same levels by 2027, International energy agency Principal.
Chief Criminal?
China recently told that Its coal imports up to record up to 14.4% in record high in 2024A year ago compared to 542.7 million metric tons compared to 474.42 million tonnes.
The second largest economy in the world is also globally largest coal consumer, which is more than 56% of the global demand in 2023, Latest figures shown by IEA,
Mei said that China’s record-high coal stockpiling strategy is ready to prepare the country for the lack of potential electricity due to extreme weather events.
When coal is so cheap, very little focus is on using energy efficiently.
Hydrophy, wind and solar energy About 30% of China’s electrical mixture made In 2023, the data of Energy Think Tank Amber Energy was shown. When the production of hydropower falls as a result of insufficient rainfall, the Chinese government often depends on the power of coal to ensure energy security, the MEI said.
“In addition, another major barrier is not the availability of renewable energy infrastructure, but the difficulty of broadcasting solar and wind energy in the provinces,” he said, a “significant energy backbone” will remain in China until coal grid integration. Management is fully developed across the country.
In India, climate-inspired extreme heat has increased the demand for energy for cooling, and clean energy sources have not been made enough enough to meet the country’s growing electricity demand, said MEI.
According to analysts, India’s meditation on the development of economic and infrastructure has also promoted cement and steel consumption, which are very much dependent on coal.
The demand for South Asian nation for steel is determined to increase by 8-9% in 2025, beyond other economies, due to a pickup in infrastructure and steel-intensive construction in residential areas, Data shown from counseling firm Crisil,
Recently last December, India increased its instructions For imported coal-based power plants to run at full capacity by 28 February.
But it is not to say that India is ignoring its renewable energy goals. The country has set an ambitious goal To meet 50% of your electricity needs Through renewable energy by 2030. And it has progressed. And as last October, Renewal account for more than 46.3% According to the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy of India, the power generation capacity of the country.
Beyond China and India
Outside India and China, other top countries for building new coal plants are Bangladesh, Indonesia and Vietnam, Global Energy Monitor said.
Vietnam is expected to overtake Taiwan as the world Fifth biggest importerOne after the country’s coal imports High record in over a decade Last year.
Indonesia Coal production The country’s data from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the country revealed that last year reached a fresh high level to about 831 million tonnes.
Amber Energy reported that the coal part in the power mixture of the Philippines crossed China, which became the most coal-dependent country in Southeast Asia, told by Amber Energy.
“Very little attention is paid to using energy efficiently when coal is so cheap,” said Dave Jones, an electrical analyst of Energy think tank amber energy.
Demand for strong coal in Asia across the board is also a result of partly increase in gas prices because since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, given that many major thermal coal importers like China, India and Vietnam have gas-based After high gas prices were planned back for power buildouts, which Astris Advisory said Commodity Strategist Ian Ropper in Japan KK.
AI factor
Global power consumption is expected to increase in 2025, Iea said,
“The world needs more energy, and now needs it,” said Rob Thumel, senior portfolio manager at Tortoe Capital. “To grow the global economy, it requires efficient, cost-effective and reliable energy supply sources,” he told CNBC.
Artificial Intelligence has also intensified the world’s need for energy. Reports have shown that the need for electricity operated by data centers around the world will also prolong the demand for coal.
“America, China and the world are in the race for AI superiority,” said Tim Winter, portfolio manager of Gably Funds. AI data centers are huge power users, making it difficult to retire a reliable and inexpensive energy source like coal, explaining.
By 2030, the demand for electricity from data centers may be more than 35 GW, more than double the 17 GW recorded in 2022, Moody shown in a report of ratings,
Is energy infection still possible?
As the demand for global electricity increases rapidly, all the time monitoring the IEA’s forecasts of coal demands at the highest level of time have started to echo.
Eric Nutall, senior portfolio manager of Ninepoint Partners, said, “When the demand for oil continues for natural gas, for coal, at record height, no infection can occur.”
Governments agreed 2015 Paris Climate Agreement To limit global heating below 2 ° C and to carry on efforts to advance temperature rise to 1.5 ° C. To prevent global warming from exceeding 1.5 ° C, it is estimated that Emissions should be cut by 45% by 2030 and by 2050 to reach net zero,
Other people are less pessimistic, although they recognized the challenge of reaching those goals in time.
With renewal, a pledge running with a looming Global LNG supply increase This can ensure that coal imports will continue to weaken in some coal-oyst markets, who said that coal consumption has been falling in Europe and North-East Asia in recent years.
Additionally, if the countries are committed to their promises of Tripling Renewables by 2030, the coal can see a meaningful decline in this decade, said Jones of Amber Energy.
