The container backlog takes place on September 21, 2025 at the Longton Port Container Terminal in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, China.
Costfoto | Nurphoto | Getty images
The Economic Cooperation and Development Organization upgraded the forecast of its global economic development on Tuesday, in which many economies seem to be more flexible than expected so far this year.
OECD now expects a global growth of 3.2% this year, compared to 2.9% expansion in June. Expectations of 2026 were unchanged at 2.9%. This will mark the recession with an increase of 3.3% seen in 2024.
The hopes of development for the US also increased by 1.8% to 2025 as compared to the 1.6% estimate of June. This still marks a significant decline from an increase of 2.8% of 2024, although. The organization estimates an increase of 1.5% for the US in 2026.
The organization said in a new report, “Global development was more flexible in the first half of 2025, especially in many emerging market economies.”
“Industrial production and trade were supported by front-loading beyond high tariffs. Strong AI-related investment in the United States promoted results and fiscal support in China defeated the drag with trade headwind and property market weakness.”
OECD chief economist Alvaro Perera on Tuesday told Charlotte Reid of CNBC that individual economic events in emerging markets including Brazil, Indonesia and India also promoted the world economy.
“But for you to be honest with you, we have not changed a lot for almost all G20 countries for most of our forecasts and we still hope to slow down in the second part of the year after this front loading,” he said.
Tariff effect is still coming
However, the OECD warned that “remains significant risks to the economic approach,” because investment and business policy is colliding with high levels of uncertainty and high tariffs.
Comprehensive duties on goods entering the US were implemented in August following policy changes, temporary stagnation and threats from US President Donald Trump.
Countries and regions around the world now face more than 50% of tariff rates on their exports in the US, some are still trying to interact on the trade structure.
The OECD said, “The US bilateral tariff rate has increased in almost all countries since May. The overall effective American tariff rate in late August has an estimated 19.5%, the highest rate since 1933, the highest rate,” said the OECD.
He said, “The full effects of tariff growth have yet been felt – with several changes over time and companies initially absorb some tariff growth through margin – but spending are visible rapidly in options, labor markets and consumer prices,” said this.
According to the report, in some countries some countries show signs of high unemployment and low job openings, while the process of disruptions seems to be flattened.
Perera of OECD said that “Tariff Shock is bringing more inflation pressure in many countries.”
“We hope that it will have additional value impact for firms not only in the United States but also in other parts of the world,” he said.
OECD now expects headline inflation for an amount of 3.4% in G20 countries in 2025, slightly lower than the 3.6% projection of June. The expectations of inflation to the US were more rapidly modified, with OECDs now prices increased in 2025 in 2025 in 2025.
Given further, further tariffs grow and the return of inflation pressure was flagged in the organization’s report as two major risks, as well as increasing concerns about fiscal state and the possibility of repetition in financial markets.
The OECD said, “High and volatile crypto-asset valuations also increase financial stability risks due to increasing interactions with traditional financial systems. Inverted, decrease in trade restrictions or rapid growth or rapid growth and adoption of artificial intelligence technologies can be strengthened.”
