Frederick Merz, CDU/CSU, Chancellor candidate and leader of German Christian Democrats (CDU).
Johannes Simon | Getty Image News | Getty images
The Conservative Alliance formed by the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its sister Party The Christian Social Union (CSU) is ready to lead Germany again after the federal election on Sunday, which ends the period of political instability which Berlin ended Has been dog. for months.
Center-Right CDU-CSU won 28.6% of the votes, in which the distant option for Germany (AFD) came in second place with 20.8%, while the Center-Leam Social Democratic Party (SPD) came third with 16.4% . According to vote, Preliminary results from the federal withdrawal officer.
The result, which will be confirmed later on Monday, means that CDU-CSU candidate Frederick Merz will probably be established as the next Chancellor of Germany, who takes from the SDD of the SPD After his three-sided alliance, he fell at the end of last year.
“We live it because CDU and CSU have worked well together and we have prepared very well for this election and also to handle governing responsibility,” Merz has given an exit poll on Sunday In said, indicated the victory of the coalition.
Supporters indicated reading the “Chancellor” and “Merze” on 22 February 2025 during the final campaign program of the Christian Democratic Union party of Germany in Munich.
Alexandra Beer | AFP | Getty images
The victory for Christian alliance ends the period of uncertainty in Europe’s largest economy, although coalition can now be the weeks of political horse-trade as a government.
CDU-CSU has the most possible results for creating a two-party alliance with SPD, a tried and tested coalition formula in Germany, although also a three-sided alliance made of CDU-CSU, SPD and Greens One is one. Possibility.
Merz had already refused to set up any governing alliance with anti-immigration, populist AFD party, which on Sunday saw her best election results.
“Merz has clearly given a mandate to form a new government,” CDU politician and member of European Parliament David McClaster said on Monday.
“He will be a very good Chancellor because I have known him for many years, we can fully trust this man and hope that he can bring back confidence, he can restore faith in Germany, that is what his The main task is and I wish him all the best. “
From ‘loan brake’ to trump
European market However, there has been some extent silent reaction to Germany’s election results Dex The stock market index open about 0.4% more on Monday.
But despite this relief, the new German government has a lot.
Has been seen as an undesirable distraction by investors warning political division in Berlin Germany should cross a series of challenges. These include an economic illness that has captured the country in recent years, its car-and-Xport-oriented economy looks weak, as well as a prickly debate on immigration and integration which increased the AFD in prominence and popularity Have seen the choice.
The broader role of Germany in European geopolitics is also a case for debate, especially in view of the ongoing war in Ukraine, and another potential headwind in the form of US President Donald Trump and his trade tariff.
Volkswagen ID.7 Electric cars are seen on 18 February 2025 at the Woakeswagen (VW) Electric Fleet Lead Plant at Maden, Germany.
Carmen Jasparsen | Roots
Economists are considering what a CDU-CSU-led government means for German economy and fiscal reforms after long debate and partition over Germany “Debt break“A fiscal policy that lies in the Constitution of Germany limits how much loan the government can take.
Dutash Bank strategists mentioned that the election results “especially can reduce the risks of terrible coalition negotiations, it still confirms an ongoing anti -opposing tendency that appears in both Germany and Europe. Is.”
“The result marks the lowest vote share for two major parties, even the voting (82.5%) was the highest since 1990. And it was the centralist by 2/3rds constitutional majority with CDU/ Leaves parties. CSU, SPD and Greens jointly under 66% seats, but it will require important political agreement, “he wrote in a note.
The fiscal policy has proved to be a frequent political bugbier for Berlin, with the logic to the extent that the debt brake limits responsible expenses, or development and investment.
Both arguments can have moot digits An economy,
‘Less bad news’
“Less bad news first: Germany will get a new government, once ends the long term of weakening political uncertainty,” said in a note on Monday. It agrees. “
“We expect a two-sided alliance between CDU/CSU and Center-left SPD to implement some pro-goth supply-side reforms, reduce regulatory and tax burden on businesses to some extent, and a more rational Chase the immigration and a less disabled. He questioned, however, to what extent to change and block the German Constitution to local parties such as AFD and left (dye lynke), such as loosening the loan break rule.
Other economists stated that the left (dye linke) has indicated that it is actually in favor of improving the debt brake rule and would not stand in the way of such a step.
“Although AFDs and leftists simultaneously show the number of seats required to create a blocked minority for constitutional amendments and reforms, which requires a two-third majority in Parliament, we should note that in favor of leftist improvement Are. A loan-brake rule, “Economist Cross-Asset Team in Barclays said in a note on Monday.
“Therefore, although it is still at risk, we think it is not possible that a new coalition government will improve IT and politely reduce the fiscal policy,” he mentioned in the emails made.
