The aviation industry is set for another year of difficulties, as delivery delays and supply chain problems at Boeing are set to continue through 2025, aviation consultants say.
Sunday marked one year since a door panel flew off a Boeing 737 Max 9 operated by Alaska Airlines, rekindling questions about Boeing’s quality and safety standards.
Since then, The company has introduced a series of changesThat includes mandatory workforce training and increased oversight, according to The company’s statement was published on FridayBoeing also said it has improved its “Speak Up” system to encourage employees to report workplace concerns.
But that’s not enough, points out Mike Boyd, president and co-founder of aviation consulting firm Boyd Group International.Squawk Box Asia” monday.
“The entire board of directors should have been fired,” he said. “The new CEO and the new people in there say they’re doing something, but it’s a much deeper problem.”
Without aircraft deliveries from Boeing, airlines like Southwest, Wizz Air and Ryanair are spending money “they didn’t want to spend money on overhauling airplanes they were going to retire,” Boyd said.
“Fasten your seat belts. The coming year is going to be very difficult,” he said.
He said, “Boeing is going to lose a lot of territory to our friends at Airbus. There’s no question about it.” He said the company could become a “secondary player” to Airbus in the future.
According to Reuters, US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said on Monday that Boeing has “a lot more” work to do.
“Culture change at Boeing is something that’s a real work in progress,” he said. “The only way to fully assess this would be to see if they can consistently improve outcomes.”
John Grant, chief analyst at aviation intelligence firm OAG, said concrete improvements at Boeing are unlikely to come before the end of 2025 at the earliest.
“With regulators being active across the company and new processes in place, it’s probably too early to say things are getting better,” he said. “The good news is that things haven’t gotten any worse from an operational perspective.”
However, “financial and labor relations are another issue,” he said.
Boeing has not made an annual profit since 2018. The company has suffered another setback in production following the initiative of its machinists The seven-week strike that ended in November Workers achieved a 38% incremental wage increase.
A Boeing spokesperson told CNBC that the company is focused on stabilizing the business and its implementation.Safety and Quality PlanThe spokesperson highlighted a dozen actions taken by Boeing in 2024, ranging from a leadership change on its board and the acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems to the expansion of its South Carolina site to increase production of its 787 aircraft.
beyond boeing
The problems in the aviation industry go far beyond Boeing, said Brendan Sobey, an independent analyst at Sobey Aviation.
From spare part shortages to engine maintenance, he said, “it’s about the entire ecosystem of companies that are around the industry.”
“This has been a very difficult period and there is no real sign of it ending in the near future,” he said. “These are problems that will take many years, not just one year, to solve.”
Sobi said airlines are particularly frustrated by the reliability and maintenance problems of engine makers Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-Royce.
As for Pratt & Whitney’s issues, he offered a glimpse of positivity for the industry: “It’s probably past the worst of it.”
What does this mean for passengers
Many airlines, including Hawaiian Airlines and Spirit Airlines, are being forced to ground portions of their fleets due to engine problems, Boyd said.
“The engines are not there,” he said. “Wizz Air Bus in the EU 40 planes were grounded For the year.”
This will make it difficult to find deals on airfares in 2025, he said. “If you’re really looking for some cheap fares, I don’t think even Mr. O’Leary of Ryanair can promise that,” he said, referring to Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary.
Scott Keyes, founder of air travel website Going, said airfares are likely to increase in 2025. In a post on December 30, Keys mentioned How the cost of flying to and within the United States has changed since the COVID-19 pandemic.
- 2020: -17%
- 2021: -4%
- 2022: +36%
- 2023: -12%
- 2024: +5%
However, Sobi said capacity issues caused by grounded flights could be offset by an increase in flights, especially in Asia-Pacific, where the industry is still recovering from the Covid pandemic.
He said Airfares are normalizing at levels above pre-Covid fares, but below 2022 peak levels – cost and supply chain issues are not, however. This year may bring some improvements, he said, but “overall, these challenges still remain.”
