Workers produce clothes for exports to foreign markets in Sihong Guosun Garment Company, Ltd. on 23 January 2025 in Weeing Town, Sihong County, Sukian City, Jiangsu Province, East China.
Costfoto | Nurphoto | Getty images
In January, the activity of China’s factory was unexpectedly contracted, due to a slow weather before the lunar New Year, reversed the growth seen in the last three months and keep a live call for strong fiscal support to promote the economy. For.
The official purchasing managers’ index for January came at 49.1, Data issued by National Bureau of Statistics On Monday, the Reuters of 50.1 is shown compared to the poll estimates.
According to official data, the PMI had separated from the contraction for the last three months, which had separated from the contraction for the last three months, 50.1 in December, 50.3 in November and 50.1 in October.
In January, the manufacturing PMI softens, as migrant workers return to the hometown before the Chinese New Year, which falls on 29 January, said Hua Shaan, the mainist of Goldman Sachs, the main China.
The Blue-Chip CSI 300 reversed the first profit in the day to trade a little less, after the data release.
Despite the soft manufacturing PMI, the overall demand outlook appears positive, Bruce Pang said, “The National Institution for Finance and Development Senior Research Fellow said, citing strong readings in two-price sub-Index.”
Index measuring price levels for Purchase and sales of major raw materials improved In January – Although it is still in the contraction area – Jhao King, senior statistician of NBS said in a press release. The production and operation of companies extended to a gauge of the Outlook to 55.3, said that most of the manufacturers were rapidly confident about trade expansion after holidays.
China’s non-construction PMI, which measures services and construction activity, increased to 50.2 in January, compared to 52.2 in the earlier month.
PMI’s services decreased by 50.3, which is less than the earlier month, but still expanding the holiday-inspired demand, especially in Removal areas of seasonal journey Rush, such as public transport, hotel, food and beverage industry, NBS ‘said.
Construction PMI fell to 49.3, as activity was stopped in the lead up to the festival.
“Disappointing PMI data development finds a difficulty in achieving continuous recovery in disappointing PMI data development,” China economist Zichuan Huang said in Capital Economics.
While economic activity may be raised in the coming months as policy makers are likely to increase the expenses of excitement and front-load deficit in early 2025, the economy is still struggling between the new US administration, Huang, structural headwinds and tariff dangers Has been Said.
Decreasing profits
In 2024, China’s industrial profits fell 3.3% from the previous year, which expanded the decline for the third consecutive year. In December, however, benefits 11% jumped from a year ago, It is growing for the first time since July.
Corporate profits have been recovering from a faster 27% year-on-time dip in September-his biggest decline during the Kovid-19 epidemic since March 2020. They fell 7.3% on the year in November and 10% in October, as the real estate sector continued to weigh the possibilities of a recession and foggy income on consumer demand.
Industrial benefits are a major indicator of financial health of factories, utilities and mines in China.
World’s second largest economy Official annual development target last yearThe expansion of 5.0%, as a barrage of stimulation measures, was indicated by economists Industrial production growth retail salesUnderlining the power of the country’s supply and party, while domestic demand was weak.
The manufacturers for consumer goods saw a steady increase in their profits, increased 3.4% from last year, a year ago, NBS Statistics U Wining said in a statementThe policy for consumption and strong exports was extended by encouragement.
A PMI sub-release measuring China’s new export orders was 46.4 in January, the lowest level from February last year. Pang said that the level was “not bad”, which, given the seasonal factor during the Chinese New Year, Pang said, “Front loading of exports due to potential trade stress is still going on.”
Chinese exporters have participated in shipments due to concerns over potential tariff hike. US President Donald Trump has threatened to impose an additional 10% tariff soon on 1 February. During his campaign mark, he suggested tariffs up to 60% on Chinese goods.
China’s economic recession has not seen “turning point” yet, Goldman Sachs’ said, “The scale of the US tariff and time still on the scale of domestic consumption and uncertainty.” He said, “The bottom line is that we need a great excitement from the government, even the opportunity to improve inflation and confidence,” he said.
