Asian economies scramble to appeal to Trump as the US President has increased tariff hazards

As a philosophy of the audience of Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff, many Asian economies who enjoy adequate business surplus with Washington are footing to interact on favorable solutions with the US President so that slapping with high duties Could be killed

Trump said on Friday that he would declare mutual tariffs – duties that match those on American goods by the respective countries – as soon as on Tuesday, to be effective immediately. Trump did not say which countries would be hits, but indicated that this would be a widespread effort to help eliminate the US trade deficit.

While the details are not clear, it is likely that American import tariffs will grow for most emerging Asian economies, “a team of barclays analysts on Monday said with exceptions from Singapore and Hong Kong, with which the US would enjoy the trade surplus with the US trade surplus Is.

Depending on the estimates of the World Trade Organization, most of the economies in Asia apply high average tariffs on imports than the US as 2023. India led with 17% simple average Rate on countries with the most preferred countries, Compared to America compared to AmericaThe US has MFN status with most major economies except Russia.

China topped the trade surplus of $ 295.4 billion with the US last year, followed by Vietnam’s $ 123.5 billion, Taiwan $ 74 billion, Japan $ 68.5 billion and South Korea’s $ 66 billion, According to US Census Bureau,

“These economies have dodged tariffs for now,” Stephen Agric, senior economist at Moody’s Analytics, told CNBC, (this does not mean that they can breathe easy. “

Except for Vietnam, these countries were thanked to Trump’s initial tariff Salvo for his deep safety relations with Washington and big investments in the US, said Agrica, but “he should not be very comfortable.”

Vietnam’s trade surplus with America is about 18% annually Last year a record highCountry Simple average tariff rate According to WTO data, MFN partners were at 9.4%.

Imported beverages in the country and tobacco average up to 45.5% tariffs, while categories such as sugars and confectionery, fruits and vegetables, clothes and transport equipment are subject to tariffs between 14% and 34%.

Trump, who called Vietnam in 2019 “About The worst derogatory, In business practices, there is no public comment about the nation after its election in November.

Hanoi has made efforts to compromise with Washington on trade in recent months. In November, the country vowed to buy more Aircraft, liquid natural gas and other products From America

Vietnamese Prime Minister Fam Minh Chinh last week Asked to prepare cabinet members for impact This year a possible global trade war.

Vietnam was a prominent beneficiary of trade barriers imposed on Beijing in his first term, which inspired the manufacturers to move production out of China. As a result, the Southeast Asian nation became one of the largest recipients of foreign direct investment from China.

If this “complete tariff reciprocity,” implements Michael Van, senior currency analyst at MUFG Bank, the US may double its tariff to Vietnam to 8%. Said in a note monday. He said, he expects a lower extreme American stance on the country, in which “some sector-specific tariffs” are more likely.

In New Delhi Earlier this month, the Union Budget reduced the tariff On many products including motorcycles, electronic goods, significant minerals and lithium ion batteries. Finance Secretary Tuhin Kanta Pandey Said in an interview “We are indicating that India is not a tariff king.”

Indian Prime Minister is Narendra Modi Allegedly designed to discuss further The tariff cuts into a dozen areas and buys more energy and defense equipment from the US in his meeting with Trump later this week.

India’s surplus with America, its third largest business partner, Last year reached $ 45.7 billion. In particular, the country’s imported agricultural commodities were subject to 39% of duties.

During Trump’s first term, he had a warm relationship with Modi, but during his campaign for the election again, Trump was India is called “very humiliating” With tariff.

In a phone call with Modi last month, Trump emphasized India’s importance, which “to reach a” to buy American-made security equipment “Fair bilateral trading relationsAccording to the statement of the White House.

Some of the markets kept an eye on the idea that both sides can start discussing long -awaited long -awaited. US-India Free Trade AgreementWhich was the biden administration Allegedly reprimanded India’s interest In search of a free trade agreement, the Indian local media described the country’s Commerce and Industry Minister.

“Such a deal will now require adequate tariff cuts by New Delhi as it has much more tariff rates than Washington; Trump somewhat believes in mutuality,” according to Kenneth Juster, reputed partner In the Foreign Relations Council,

India offered to transfer its oil imports from Russia to align with plans to promote Trump’s oil and gas exports, said Arpit Turvedi, Advisor to South Asia, Teno.

Analysts stated that Japan has gained a positive relationship with Trump and can be shielded with high tariffs, “for now,” Wrapped on a tornado trip to Washington In the weekend.

Maintains Tokyo Relatively low tariffs of about 3.7% According to WTO data, on countries with MFN status. This suggests that “very little scope for sufficient increase in tariffs on Japanese goods”, Nomura’s Chief Japan economist Kyoi Morita said in a note on Monday.

During the summit last week, Japan Agreed to import more natural gas He expressed interest in a project to give LNG from the US and through a pipeline from North Alaska.

The two leaders also agreed to the agreement that instead of achieving US steel, Japan’s nippon Steel would “invest” in the US firm. ISIBA stated that Japan would provide technology for better quality products in the US for better quality products for US steel.

Japan, which has been The largest foreign investor in America For five straight years, Also promised to expand that investment From $ 1 trillion, $ 783.3 billion in 2023,

“While Japan cannot survive all the effects of future American tariff policies, Teno Vice President James Brady said in a Saturday note, Tokyo can avoid targeted treatment seen with countries such as Canada, Mexico and China.”

Brady said, “It can also expect more generous trade treatment than other major economies, as it enjoys the position of one of Trump’s most preferred nations,” Brady said.

Beijing’s tight-for-tat measurementS – 15% levy on American coal, liquid natural gas, 10% of duties on crude oil, including cultivated equipment, car and pickup trucks – is believed to be minor and restrained.

According to data compiled by Nomura, according to accounting for 8.5% of China’s total American imports and only 0.5% of China’s total imports, China is expected to cover $ 13.9 billion imports from the US in 2024.

This is much lower than Trump’s first term during the first term of targeted $ 50 billion American goods, said Tommy Jhi, head of Asia Macro Research at OCBC Bank in a note on Monday.

“Calibrated Approach” indicated that “China is choosing for a more diverse response,” Non-tariff counterons such as export control and regulatory investigation in American corporates, “except for the room for further interaction,” Said.