Why are some F1 Italian GP Jeet is safe from the pole?

Pierre Galli, Daniel Reciardo, Max Verustapane, Charles LakelerThe winners of the last five Grands Prix in Monza have a clear fact that the Formula 1 driver has won the Italian GP.

None of them started with the position of the pole.

In fact, the race won by the pole is in the minority in Monza, which has hosted a World Championship Grand Prix every year since 1950.

It is a foolish that such statistical observation to be implemented on Monza’s entire tenure, however, since the track has passed through several configurations since 1950. By 1972, Curve Grande had no chicken on Pitstrite to reduce the speed, so the first clipstreaming effect from the first intelligent region would be more powerful.

In addition, the first chicken quickly established a reputation as an accident blackspot: Ronnie Peterson died in 1978 after a pile-up in the first corner (but incorrectly) was convicted on the Ricardo Patris, but in fact the result of the race was started before a stop on the grid. This has gone through several changes of configuration to reduce the bottleneck effect, so the current track configuration is only in place since 2000.

The distance between the start line and turn 1 is more than just 470 meters, enough to give a small slipping effect. But in recent years the investigation of the contestants has become more sophisticated, so drivers are usually keen to take freedom in independence 1.

Since the new turn 1 configuration was set in 2000, Monza won 14 rounds from the pole, but the stretch from 2020 to 2024 is the longest barren period.

Is this a trend, or are they expecting a disappointing result for the waste that is engaged in the decline of gambler today-the cognitive bias that leads people to more estimate the possibility of an event based on the frequency of similar results in the immediate past? Probably later.

Even outside the period we are considering, many disadvantages from the pole in Monza occurred through unreliability (eg Juan Pablo Montya in 2002) or simply getting a poor start (Lewis Hamilton In 2016).

In 2020, the final winner Galley started at 10th place on the grid and was not in the photo at the beginning of the race, which Hamilton led by the pole. Two safety car periods and a red flag again played a role: Galley closed Gasli at the moment of opportunity during the first time, while Hamilton took a punishment for stopping when the pit stopped in the pit because the entry into the pit was stopped as Kevin magnesenHusband was broken there.

Galley achieved the track position and then led after the restarted Lance walk Blundard and Hamilton served their punishment.

2021 was a sprint weekend, so the circumstances were slightly slant by the grid fixed by the result of the sprint race. Vultiry botas The pole should have been started, but not due to fine for new power unit components. From the second on the grid, Reciardo made a slightly better start than the substitute Polisiter Verustapane and first got to turn 1.

Because of him, he was assisted by Verustapane and Hamilton, who was second and third in the early lap, which was later a controversial struggle in the race.

In 2022, Lakeler led the first lap from the pole, but Vastapane had a stunning sharp car at the speed of the race – he was just a little out on the grid (seventh after a fine to take the new power unit components), and cut through the ground to lead the merit when the race behind the security car ends.

The following year Vestapen also enjoyed the advantage of a car, but he drowned a wheel in gravel in Q3 and finished second on the grid. Carlos Sainz Initially led by pole Ferrari But this was a conflict to keep the Vastapane behind; At lap 15, he closed on Turn 1 and Vastapane seized the moment to get better exit. From there he just went away from Ferrari.

Last season, of course, Lando Noris The pole was qualified and led through Turn 1, but then mugged by his team partner Oscar piastry Later around the lap, a step that enabled Lakeler to create his own opportunistic step and seize the other. Lakeler then stopped for hard tires and got the track status when Piastry beaten.

Different circumstances, then, for all the last five wins in Monza, so there is no certainty that this alleged trend will continue …