Jeff Sika of Circle Squard alternative investment says inflation is the carbon monoxide of the economy.
An analysis by JPMorgan suggests that the US stock market has not been inspired by concerns about the recent sale Economy falls into recession,
Increased uncertainty on President’s influence Donald Trump’s The economy, American business relations and labor market tariff schemes, persistence as well as Americans continue to keep the domestic budgets under stress.
Last week, a team of JP Morgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigritzoglu wrote, “American development concerns have often been mentioned as a major reason for the recent American equity market reforms in our customer conversations due to tariff uncertainty.” “In fact, on our estimates, the vested possibility of embedded American recession in property classes has been crawling in the last one week because the risk markets have damaged and the US Treasury declined.”
However, a review by JP Morgan analysts suggested that improvement may be mainly due to quantitative hedge funds that use algorithm strategies to adjust positions rather than concerns about recession.
A report by JP Morgan analysts suggests that the market cell-off was not mainly inspired by the possibility of recession. (Photo by Ryan Rehman/Pacific Press/Litericket through Getty Image/Getty Image)
He wrote, “Recently the American Equity Market Reforms seems to be more operated by the Equity Quant Fund Position Adjustment and is operated by the original or discretionary managers who re -achieve the risks of US recession,” he wrote.
The report states that credit markets are sending signs of low recession than equity and a bond benchmark.
By March 11, S&P 500 Index 33% of the vested possibility of recession suggested, while the 5-year-old Treasury gave 46% chance, base metals 45% and Russell 2000 index 52% chance. In contrast, the US High-grade credit markets estimated the possibility of 12% recession and only 9% possibility to the US High Ald Credit.
The JP Morgan report states that credits are sending less recession signs than other parts of the market market. (Michael M. Santiago / Getty Images / Getty Images)
“If someone weighs more weight on the credit markets and rejects the risk of American recession, what then explains the improvement of American equity and especially Nasdaq? Retail investor It is unlikely to be a criminal, “analysts have written.
Analysts said, “The most possible guilty in our brain is equity hedge funds and especially in two categories: equity quant hedge funds and equity TMT sector hedge funds,” said analysts. He noted that more traditional hedge funds focused on long or short equity positions, which played a role in a pullback less than a role in the pullback given a financial metric in February.
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“If the above evaluation is correct and equity quant hedge funds play more role than their discretionary counterparts, recently American equity market reforms would seem more operated by original or discretionary managers who assure the risks of American recession,” analysts explained.
“and if US Equity ETF He said that continue to look at most flows, a good chance that most of the current American equity market reforms are behind us, “he said.
