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We consumer confidence According to a report released on Tuesday, there was a rapid decline in February in February.
The conference board released its consumer confidence index to the lowest level, 98.3 in February since June on June. It is well down to an estimate of 102.5 of the LSEG pole for February and the pre -reading of 104.1 in January.
“In February, Consumer Vishwas recorded the biggest monthly decline since August 2021,” said the global indicator in the conference board, senior economist, Stephanie Guicard. “This is the decline of the third consecutive month-to-month, which brings the index to the bottom of the range that has been strong since 2022.”
One of the components of the Report of the Conference Board is the current status index, which is based on the current assessment of consumers Business and labor market conditions And fell from 3.4 points to 136.5. The Expectations Index-which is based on the short-term approach of consumers for income, business and labor market conditions-fell to 72.9 and was below the threshold of 80 which usually indicates a recession after June 2024 Is.
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Consumer confidence has declined in February. (Gabby Jones / Bloomberg Getty Image / Getty Image)
“Of the five components of the index, only the assessment of current commercial conditions of consumers improved, slightly. The views of current labor market conditions weakened. Consumers became pessimistic about future business conditions and about future income I became less optimistic about the future about the future. Employment possibilities Worsened and reached ten months high, “Guicard wrote.
The decline in confidence was shared in all age groups, but was the deepest for consumers between the ages of 35 and 55. It was also widespread among income groups, only with exceptions which were between $ 15,000 per year and between $ 100,000 and $ 100,000 and $ 100,000. $ 125,000.
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Consumers hope that inflation will accelerate in the next 12 months, the board found. (Frederick J. Brown / AFP Getty Image / Getty Image)
Average 12 months Inflation expectations The report increased from 5.2% to 6% in February. Guicard stated that “the possibility of growth reflected a mixture of factors, including sticky inflation, but recently jumped into the prices of major domestic staples such as eggs and the expected effects of tariffs.”
Guicard said that inflation and prices continue to rank higher in response to responders’ writing, but since 2019 there was a sharp increase at a level in trade and tariff mentions. He said that “comments” comments Current administration And its policies dominated the reactions. ,
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has indicated that the central bank is ready to wait on further interest rate cuts based on economic conditions. (Photo by Liu G / Xinhua through Getty Image / Getty Image)
LPL’s financial chief economist Jeffrey Roach said that there may be some behavioral changes among consumers based on the spirit expressed by the findings of the report and said that Federal Reserve Rate-cutting poses are unlikely to be replaced by it in the near period.
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“Consumers are rapidly nervous about unknown effects Potential tariff And can carry forward the consumer’s demand as they estimate high prices for imports in the near future, “Roach explained.” A note of caution: Consumer surveys are much more unstable than the hard data of retail sales, so Fed is unlikely to change its stance on monetary policy in the next two meetings. ,
