percentage:61.46; Remaining matches: India (1 home Test), Sri Lanka (2 away)
If Australia wins the Sydney Test against India, they will reach the WTC final regardless of the result in Sri Lanka – If Australia wins in Sydney but loses both Tests in their upcoming series in Sri Lanka, they are 57.02 percent Will end in numbers. India’s 50 and Sri Lanka’s 53.85.
A draw in Sydney will keep them ahead of India, but it will leave the door open for Sri Lanka to advance; If Australia draws in Sydney but loses both Tests in Sri Lanka, they will finish on 53.51, while Sri Lanka will climb to 53.85.
If Australia had lost in Sydney, they would have needed a win in Sri Lanka to qualify. A 1-1 decision in Sri Lanka after the loss in Sydney would leave Australia on 57.02 with India on 55.26. If Australia draws both Tests in Sri Lanka after losing in Sydney, India and Australia will be tied at 55.26, but India will qualify on the basis of more series wins in this WTC cycle.
percentage:52.78; Remaining matches: Australia (1 away)
India need a win in Sydney to stay in the race for the WTC final. A win would take India to 55.26, which would be enough for them to finish second if Australia cannot secure more than two draws in Sri Lanka. As mentioned above, if Australia draws both the Tests, they will be level with India on percentage, but India will qualify with more series wins in this cycle. If Australia loses 1–0, they will drop to 53.51, and Sri Lanka will finish with 48.72 (with a 1–0 win).
However, if India only manage a draw, they will fall to 51.75 and be out of the race for the WTC final. This is because even if Australia loses both Tests in Sri Lanka after the draw in Sydney, they will finish at 53.51, while Sri Lanka will climb to 53.85.
percentage:45.45; Remaining matches: Australia (2 home)
The only way for Sri Lanka to qualify is if the Sydney Test ends in a draw and then they beat Australia 2–0. In that case, Sri Lanka, at 53.85, would be above Australia (53.51) and India (51.75).
If India wins in Sydney, it will oust Sri Lanka. If Australia goes 3-1 in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy, they will definitely overtake Sri Lanka.
