RIA Advisor CIO Lance Roberts joins ‘Money Making Money’ to break the recent stock market climb and explains why the Trump administration tariff is not being blamed.
Major Wall Street firms update their forecasts to reflect the growing possibility of American economy Penetrate This year, the possibility of a wide trade war may hurt consumers and businesses equally.
chairman Donald Trump On Wednesday, April 2, plans to unveil their mutual tariff schemes, which they have described as “Liberation Day”, while their 25% tariffs on imported automobiles are ready to be effective on Thursday. Those tariffs are likely to promote retaliation by American trading partners that will affect American exporters’ ability to reach foreign markets, although Trump see tariffs as helping to protect American industry.
A growing trade war can cause the American economy due to the impact of the war, which was already seen to be continuously seen as a continuous inflation and a cooling labor market, to slide in the recession.
Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi wrote in a post on X on Sunday that he is “increasing my obstacles that some time will start some time this year, which will be above 15% at the beginning of the year.”
Federal Reserve Economy, leaves unchanged interest rate unchanged amid uncertainty on inflation
President Donald Trump is planning to install mutual tariffs with 25% auto tariff this week. (Andrew Harnik / Getty Images)
He said, “Last week’s economic figures were dacoing, including slides, punk consumer expenses, and frequent high inflation,” he explained. “Trade war and Dogi are behind all this to intensify and with the announcement of Bigg last week Tariff increases On vehicle imports and upcoming mutual tariffs, things are sure to deteriorate. ,
“The recession is not only likely to be reduced because the sorting is low and the increase in job and income is positive. This Friday Report of jobs For March, we will understand whether this is going on, “Zandi wrote.
“It is premature to expect a much fall from the trade war Dogi cut In jobs data, around 150,000 monthly payroll suggests job benefits. Anything will be worrisome to the south of 100K, and anything will be welcomed to the north of 200K. But whatever is the number of jobs, as long as the cut of tariffs and dogs continues, there will also be a possibility of recession, “he said.
Tariffs are tax levied on imported goods that can cause vengeance as tariffs on American exporters. (Through Selkuk Akar / Anadolu / Getty Image)
A team of Goldman Sachs Economists predicted their recession in a customer note on Sunday, written that, “Now we see the possibility of a 12 -month recession of 35%.”
He said, “Our low growth from our last 20% estimate reflects a recent decline in baseline, domestic and business confidence, and the statements of the White House officials indicate more desire to bear the economic weakness of the near -term in search of their policies,” he explained.
“While Bhavna has been a poor prophet of activity in the last few years, we are less dismissed for recent decline Economic basic principle In earlier years, not as strong, “Economists wrote.” Most importantly, the increase in actual income has already slowed down rapidly and we hope that this year only 1.4% will be average. ,
Market cell-offs have not been inspired by the possibility of recession, JP Morgan gets analysis
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that historically, the possibility of recession in the next 12 months is about 1 -in -4 at any time. (Alex Wong / Getty Image)
Earlier this month, JP Morgan economists at the beginning of the year increased the possibility of more than 30% recession. He reiterated the scene in a note last week, saying “do not underestimate the ability of a flexible American and global economy to absorb a shock, while recognizing that a big policy/feeling can also be a healthy expansion.”
Federal reserve chair Zerome poly Earlier this month, its post-meting press conference stated that the possibility of recession has increased since the beginning of the year, although it is not high and has been noted that historically, at any time, there is a 1-in-4 probability of recession in the next 12 months.
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“The question is that, in this current situation, those possibilities have been elevated. I would say, we do not make such a forecast. If you look at outside forecasts, many forecasts have generally raised, many of them have raised their possibility of recession to some extent, but still he was very low.” So it has gone up, but it is not high, but it is not high. “
