“Sleeping with an elephant”: what will a Republican or Democratic victory mean for Canada? – National
Pierre Trudeau has described living next to the United States as “sleeping with an elephant,” a feeling his son is intimately aware of amid this year’s tumultuous and polarized U.S. elections.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has likely reflected on his father’s words regarding Canada’s proximity to the United States: “everyone is affected by every tick and every grunt.”
The United States is Canada’s closest neighbor and largest trading partner and wins the White House in November will be in charge during the review of the Canada-United States-Mexico agreement in 2026.
While vice president Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump approach trade differently, both advocate protectionist policies that could create uncertainty for Canada.
“We’ve already done it,” Trudeau said recently when asked about the two presidential candidates who have said they would push for a review of the crucial trade deal.
“We can do it again if we need to.”
Harris campaigned by voting against the trilateral agreement and made comments in support of the Biden administration. Buy American procurement rules.
Meanwhile, Trump’s professed love of tariffs is the centerpiece of his agenda. He had previously proposed a blanket tariff of 10 percent, pushing it to more than 50 percent in recent talks.
“To me, the greatest word in the dictionary is ‘tariff,'” Trump said Tuesday.
This rhetoric is ringing alarm bells north of the border. More than 77 percent of Canadian exports go to the United States and 60 percent of Canada’s gross domestic product comes from trade.
The Canadian Chamber of Commerce released a report earlier this month suggesting that Trump’s 10 percent tariffs would reduce the size of the economy by between 0.9 and 1 percent, resulting in costs economic costs of around $30 billion per year. Things would be even worse if other countries responded by erecting their own tariff barriers.
The first Trump administration demonstrated how vulnerable Canada was to the whims of the United States when the former president abandoned the North American Free Trade Agreement.
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The negotiation of CUSMA, commonly nicknamed “the new NAFTA”, was a key test for Ottawa after Trump’s victory.
Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland called the updated trilateral agreement “a victory for all Canadians,” and experts say it was more moderate than Trump initially threatened.
But Trump trade representative Robert Lighthizer criticized the renegotiation, writing in his book that at one point “NAFTA was hanging by a thread.”
“With Trump in charge, he is definitely a very unstable individual,” said Laura Dawson, an expert on Canada-U.S. relations and executive director of the Future Borders Coalition.
“And its impact on global stability and security as well as international relations with the United States is going to be significant – and not in a good way. »
Canada has learned the lessons of its first presidency. Trump followed a fairly orthodox Republican trade agenda punctuated by outbursts of personal attention, Dawson said. He handed most of the responsibility for business dealings to a more predictable Lighthizer.
Alec Beck, Fifth Congressional District chairman for the Minnesota Republican Party, said he thinks talking about Trump as an isolationist is overblown. Beck, whose state shares an 885-kilometer border with Canada, said the two countries need to work together and that tariffs are a bad idea.
“They may feel good, but it’s a sugar high,” the Republican said earlier this month.
If Harris wins, there will be more normal relations, based on established patterns and rules, said Aaron Ettinger, a politics professor at Carleton University in Ottawa.
The vice president is expected to follow the path set by President Joe Biden, who has brought some stability but not much change. He has largely maintained Trump’s tariffs, despite promises to reverse them.
Biden also signed an executive order to revoke the permit for Keystone XL, which would have transferred oil from Alberta to Nebraska.
Dawson said she expects a Harris administration to continue its nationalist and protectionist actions.
Harris campaigned for the return of manufacturing jobs to the United States. It’s a great slogan and a great bumper sticker, Dawson said, “but it’s terrible if you’re Canada.”
The impact of these policies on Canada-US relations may not be clear to voters, who support “America First” slogans.
Jeremy Washington believes that electing the Republican presidential candidate would help both countries. The 27-year-old, who recently attended a Trump rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, said change was needed “because the things that have ruined…America have also affected Canada, as has unfettered immigration, high real estate prices, currency that seems worthless.
Experts have warned that trade and tariff threats will also carry costs for Americans.
Dawson warned Trudeau’s team at a cabinet retreat in August that no matter who wins the U.S. presidency, Canada will have to work harder to maintain the existing benefits of integrated trade and travel.
Canada will rely more on ad hoc lobbying and advocacy for special treatment as Republicans and Democrats move away from the security of historic trade deals.
Experts and business groups are sounding the alarm about Canada’s changing role in favor of its closest ally. Many argue that the relationship between the two countries has shifted from a strategic one to a transactional one as Canada has become less judgmental than other countries around the world.
A report by the Independent Panel on Canada-U.S. Relations, which includes former diplomats, political advisers and business leaders, has warned that Ottawa is “sleepwalking” ahead of review of the 2026 trade deal This July report described Trump’s current relationship with the liberal government as “cold at best.”
Dawson said Canadians’ concerns will not be assuaged in the coming weeks leading up to the election. It won’t be clear what either side really has in store for Canadian relations until well after November.
“I’m much more concerned about how we find ourselves in this trajectory, in this falling dominoes, that is going to play out through this new review of NAFTA.”
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