“Quite high” potential for US post-election violence and “chaos” (ex-envoy) – National
Canada has many reasons to be concerned as the US presidential election is coming to an end, but a former diplomat between the two countries says he is particularly concerned about the “chaos” after the vote – including the “pretty high” potential for violence.
David MacNaughton, who served as Canada’s ambassador to the United States from 2016 to 2019, says he is confident Canada can manage the future. Donald Trump Or Kamala Harris administration despite the challenges each would pose.
But with polls show extremely close raceMacNaughton says he hopes the outcome will be clear enough to avoid a contested outcome like the 2000 U.S. election, which went all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court.
“You can imagine the turmoil that was going to happen,” he told Mercedes Stephenson in an interview broadcast Sunday on The West Block.
“So I hope that one way or another it’s clear.” I think we can handle either outcome, but chaos wouldn’t be good for anyone. »
MacNaughton said that regardless of who wins, he believes the likelihood of political violence following the outcome… which could take days to determine – is “quite high”.
The January 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol by a mob of Trump supporters protesting his election defeat “really shocked” him and stood in stark contrast to the period before Trump’s inauguration in 2016, he said. declared.
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“The atmosphere is so divided and so intense on both sides that I really worry about the possibility of violence,” he said. “It wouldn’t necessarily be in Washington. It could be elsewhere in the country.
An investigation by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research released Monday shows that Americans are also concerned about what might happen after Election Day, particularly if the winner is not immediately clear.
About four in 10 registered voters said they were “extremely” or “very” concerned about violent attempts to overturn the results after the November election. A similar proportion is concerned about legal efforts to achieve this. And about a third of voters said they were “extremely” or “very” concerned about attempts by local or state election officials to prevent results from being finalized.
Any post-election unrest in the United States would create “real problems” for Canada, MacNaughton said, particularly on cross-border trade And national security.
However, if Trump wins and follows through on his promise of mass deportation of at least 10 million immigrants across the United States, Canada could potentially face a wave of fearful migrants.
“We have a very, very long, undefended border, and so that’s concerning,” MacNaughton said.
The ambassador said the main difference between a Trump or Harris presidency will be how quickly Canada will have to be prepared to negotiate things like the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA). Both candidates have said they want to reopen the trade deal when it is revised in 2026.
While Canada may have more time to engage with a Harris administration “on a more traditional basis” before that review, MacNaughton said, the tone will immediately be more confrontational and “transactional” under Trump.
“I think with Trump we should be ready to discuss how we are going to be good partners and help preserve peace, security and prosperity,” he said.
Commitments to combat shared interests like defense and fentanyl smuggling could even help Canada avoid the blanket tariffs on all foreign imports into the United States that Trump has promised to impose.
“I realize that everyone is worried: is he going to impose tariffs, is he going to do this, is he going to do that,” he said. “But we have a lot of strengths that we can come to the table with. We just have to be willing to do it and not always just want to talk about trade.”
MacNaughton said Canada’s decision to follow the United States in imposing high tariffs on electric vehicles and their Chinese components “pleased” Democrats and Republicans in Washington, and showed Canada is willing to work in collaboration with the United States on common priorities.
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