Fox Business Maria Bartiromo has specifically learned that President Trump has appointed Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Boman for the role of Vice President for supervision.
federal Reserve Policy makers are meeting this week and it is expected to announce a decision on interest rates on Wednesday, possibly abandon unchanged rates amid uncertainty on the economy and underline how it will approach monetary policy in the rest of the 2025.
Consumer value is hatha at 2.8%with inflation in February, above the tariff of 2%of the Fed, threatening to increase prices with tariffs. While the labor market remains relatively stable, a business war or other shock leads to an economic downturn that can weaken it.
Fed Chair Zerome Powell said after the final policy meeting of the Central Bank in late January that it is not in a hurry to cut interest rates, saying that the policy maker will continue. Monitor inflation And as the labor market data, they assess the potential risks for both sides of their double mandate to facilitate stable prices and maximum employment. Before leaving unchanged rates in January, Fed cut 50 basis points in September, followed by a 25-base-point cut in both November and December.
Although an altitude of economic uncertainty is a height of the Fed this week’s anticipated action is an foregoing conclusion – which means that Fed Watches will be attentive to indications about the interest rates and time of the next cut.
Inflation slowed down by 2.8% in February before the Federal Reserve Meeting
The policy makers led by Federal Reserve Chair Zerome Powell will announce the Fed’s interest rate decision for March on Wednesday. (Photo by Liu G / Xinhua through Getty Image / Getty Image)
The market looks at 99% likely that Fed will leave the target for benchmark Federal fund rate According to CME Fedwatch, this week’s march meeting unchanged at 4.25% to 4.5%.
Further, the market shows a 78% chance of the Fed, which re-discards unchanged rates in May, the next rate cut is likely to fall in June, when the equipment shows 54.5% probability of the 25-base-point cut. A second cut of that size is most likely in September.
By the end of 2025, the CME Fedwatch tool shows the possibility of 32.2% on the two 25-base-point rate cuts this year to expire from 3.75% to 4%; Vs. 28.9% of a third cut probability from 3.5% to 3.75%; And this year 17.8% chance of cut in the same rate.
Consumer confidence slips with the biggest monthly decline in about 4 years in February
According to the CME Fedwatch Tool, the Federal Reserve is estimated to cut interest rates two to three times this year. ((Photo by Kevin Dietsch / Getty Image) / Getty Images)
Analysts and economists have offered different types of insight into their expectations Plan to cut fed rate,
Comerica Bank Chief Economist Bill Adams wrote last week that “it is difficult to know how the fed would react to the current situation. If the Fed today decides the monetary policy based on the policies enacted, they can cut interest rates in 2025 on the other side.
“Comerica forecasts look at the Fed learning in July 2025, with a quarter percent interest rate cut, it is likely to be in July. The financial market is pricing in a greater aggressive speed of deduction from the fed, however, by the first cut, not much by June and a half of one percent by a half -scale, by December,” was written by Adams. “In any case, Fed will be very likely in March as they wait for more information about recent policy changes and how they are affecting the economy.”
Fed officials flagged rising inflation risks amid uncertainty on trump policies, tariffs
Inflation pressure has proved stubborn, the 2% of the fed remains above the target. (Spencer Plot / Getty Image / Getty Images)
John Hatzius -led Goldman Sachs economists wrote that despite his change Economic forecasting Due to trade policy uncertainty, he has left our fed fed forecasts unchanged on two cuts this year and up to a terminal rate of another 3.5%-3.75%in 2026. “
Economists of Goldman wrote, “We see two potential paths to cut interest rate later this year. Generalization comes back to cuts, but perhaps only when tariffs decrease from our expectations and inflation resulted in less than our predictions.” “Second, if our tariff assumptions prove to be correct for more admirable path cuts, the 2019-style is ‘insurance cut’ designed to protect from negative risks for the economy.”
He said that “the bar for insurance cuts will be higher than in 2019 as inflation is high and some survey-based measures of inflation expectations, especially the Michigan series, have grown rapidly.” It is in part because “growth risks by large and wide tariffs are also much more serious than in 2019.”
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Seema Shah, the chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, said: “We only expect two or three rate cuts this year, which continuously focus on sticky inflation, but note that in the event of being more important Labor market Fed by deteriorating will probably prioritize the complete employment side of their double mandate – the more aggressive speed of spontaneity. ,
EY Chief Economist Gregory Dako said EY has seen the Fed “in the coming months as the possibility of maintaining a waiting-and-looking approach in the coming months and expects to cut only two fed rates in 2025, in June and December.”
“If the prevailing policy deteriorates uncertainty and the market volatility goes ahead, it can lead to a vicious response cycle on the economy and may motivate some policy makers to consider to be more reduced to the monetary policy,” the dacoit said. “However, we suspect that many Fed officials will be in favor of maintaining a restrictive trend to prevent the reign of inflation – especially if the expectations of inflation further increase.”
