Kevin Haset, director of the White House National Economic Council, discussed the fears of tariffs and recession during his widespread interview on ‘Morning with Maria’.
federal Reserve On Wednesday, he announced that he would unchanged his benchmark interest rate as policy makers continue to assess uncertainty around inflation and economic conditions in light of federal policy changes.
The Central Bank’s decision leaves the rate of benchmark Federal Funds from 4.25% to 4.5%.
The move was left in its previous meeting in January at the level of fed rates, which came on the heels of three consecutive rates in their preceding meetings-a pair of 50-base-point cuts in September and a 25-base cut cut in November and December.
Trump officials returned the President’s economic policies amid tariff uncertainty
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which guides the monetary policy moves of the Central Bank, mentioned in its announcement that “(U) Economic Outlook has increased the NCERTry around the Economic Outlook” and said that it has focused on risks for both sides of its double mandate to promote maximum employment and to maintain inflation on 2% for a long time.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that tariffs are factoring in businesses ‘and the expectations of consumers’ inflation. (Tinge Shane / Bloomberg Getty Image / Getty Image)
In addition to announcing its decision on interest rates, FOMC issued a summary of economic estimates, showing that the central bank policy makers are forecasting two 25-base-point interest rate cuts this year, after which two cuts of that size in 2026 and one in 2027.
Policy makers estimated slow economic growth and high unemployment Compared to its final estimates released in December 2025.
They see the actual GDP (GDP) growing 1.7% by the end of 2025, below 2.1%, while the unemployment rate was estimated to be 4.4% in December – above 4.3% in final estimates. Unemployment rate was 4.1% in February,
How much rate deduction is expected in the market this year?
Fed’s economic estimates also show individual consumption expenditure (PCE) index, policy makers’ preferred inflation gauges, 2.7% later this year – exceeding 2.5% estimates released at the end of last year. The Commerce Department reported for February is slightly above 2.5% PCE to read.
Fed chair Zerome poly A press conference mentions in his initial comments, “Some close-proceedings of inflation expectations have recently proceeded.
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday kept the interest rates stable from 4.25% to 4.5%. (Via Mandel Engan / AFP Getty Image / Getty Image)
He also said that “the labor market is not a source of significant inflation pressure,” and said “inflation has decreased significantly in the last two years, but our 2% is somewhat high relative to long -lasting targets.”
Powell was asked how much it is Inflation forecast The reason is, at least in part, for tariffs.
“You must have seen that in the first two months of the year, the goods inflation increased significantly. Tariff increasesGiven what the tariff was done and what was not – very, very challenging, “Powell said.” So some of its answers are clearly something, a good part of it is coming from tariff. But we will work, and so other forecasts, tariff inflation will try to find the best possible way to separate non-tariff inflation. ,
Fox Business’ Edward Lawrence asked Fed Chair at this time that the impact of Trump administration policies would be seen in economic data such as unemployment and inflation.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that the trump administration’s trimming is not yet important at the national level. (Yuki Evmura / Bloomberg Getty Image / Getty Image)
“For example, the trimmed here, they are certainly meaningful for those involved, and they can be meaningful for a special neighborhood, or region, or region. But at the national level, they are not important yet, but we don’t know. We don’t know how far it will go, we will find a lot more, we will find out too much,” Powel said.
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In response to a question about recent forecasting, in which it was suggested that there is a high probability of recession and whether it is worried about it. Powell said that historically, at any time, is 1 -in -4 Possibility of a recession In the next 12 months.
“The question is whether, in this current situation, those possibilities are elevated. I would say, we do not make such a forecast. If you look at the forecasts outside, many forecasts have generally raised, many of them have raised their possibility of recession to some extent, but still it is not high, but it is not high.”
Asked if he estimates the fed cutting interest rates in May, Powell said he feels that the central bank “is well deployed to wait for clarity and not in any hurry.”
The market still sees the Fed as the possibility of cutting rates in May, with the CME Fedwatch tool at about 55%. This reflects almost equally equal possibility between the Fed, which ends two or three times in 2025, with a 31% possibility of three cuts and 30% of the two cuts.
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“The result of this meeting was broadly in line with market participating expectations, it clearly shows that Fed has clearly shown the Fed in balanced the hopes of development and inflation.”
Repley said that there is a wide range of uncertainty about the expectations of inflation, which possibly prevent the fed from cutting and added, “with a SIT-on-Hands Policy approach to the game, this fed meeting displayed difficulty in deciding in a period of uncertainty and admitted that perhaps the best action is no action.”
The next policy meeting of the Federal Reserve is scheduled for 6-7 May.
