Close US election could be decided by Americans in Canada, says former US envoy – National
The very thin US presidential race between the US vice-president Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump could be decided by American voters living abroad in countries like Canada, a former envoy said.
Bruce Heyman, a Democrat who served as U.S. ambassador to Canada during the Obama administration, says a large number of voters from key swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin could decide the election. November 5 live just across the border in Canada.
The latest FiveThirtyEight polling averages in these and other states show that Harris and Trump are separated by a fraction of a percentage point, making each vote consequential.
“I’m just appealing, please, Americans in Canada, please, if you are registered to vote (and have received an absentee ballot), you need to collect your ballot, because with only a short week to go, we need to make sure it gets in the mail,” Heyman told Mercedes Stephenson in an interview broadcast Sunday on The West Block.
Heyman has worked for years with organizations such as Democrats Abroad to boost American expat voting. The group’s Toronto president told Global News about five percent of the approximately 700,000 American citizens who live in Canada exercise their right to vote all the time.
Heyman said he helped increase turnout among U.S. voters abroad by 73% in 2020 compared to four years earlier, which helped U.S. President Joe Biden win some of the battlegrounds again which are currently being played out.
“It was American voters abroad – Canada, it’s you – who won the state of Georgia, who won the state of Arizona, and who had a significant impact on many of these other battleground states won by Joe Biden,” he said.
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“We have significantly ramped up this effort for the Harris campaign.”
Biden ultimately won the 2020 election by fewer than 45,000 votes in Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin combined, which helped him win enough electoral college delegates even though he trailed Trump by about seven millions of votes nationwide. The situation was similar in 2016, when Trump beat Hillary Clinton by about 77,000 votes in all key states, although Clinton won the overall popular vote.
Even though this year’s race appears even closer, Heyman says the United States has been bitterly divided for years, forcing Republicans and Democrats to fight on the margins of various groups, including Americans abroad.
Another key demographic is Republican women, who Harris appealed to by highlighting Trump’s rhetoric and his role in bringing down Roe v. Wade and the constitutional right to abortion. The U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling led several states to enact strict restrictions that prevented women from accessing reproductive health care.
“That’s why the vice president is out with (former Republican Rep.) Liz Cheney: They’re working Republican women on the fringes right now,” Heyman said.
“Remember, everything is at the margin. You don’t have to win them all. But if you can get 10 or 20 percent of Republican women to recognize Donald Trump for who he is, then I think Kamala Harris will be in a good position on Election Day.”
Like many officials and analysts in Canada, Heyman worries about the impact a second Trump presidency could have on Canada and on the world stage.
Trump has promised blanket tariffs on foreign imports, mass expulsions of undocumented immigrants and a transactional approach to alliances like NATO, which has already put Canada under pressure for failing to meet its goal of spending at least 2% of its GDP for defense.
Trump said he would not come to the defense of allies who do not meet that threshold if they were attacked – a key NATO commitment – and even suggested he would let aggressors like Russia “do what that they want.”
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has promised Canada will reach 2% by 2032, a timeline Heyman said Trump would likely disagree with.
Trump also did not commit to continued U.S. military and financial aid to Ukraine in its war against the Russian invasion. Canada may need to step up its efforts “significantly” alongside Europe to try to fill this gap, Heyman added.
Meanwhile, mass expulsions could lead to a surge at Canada’s borders, he said.
“If we experience something like we experienced in a small way during his last administration on Roxham Road with the Haitians (migrants seeking asylum in Quebec), it could be like a big multiple of that if he actually implements what it says it’s going to do. every day,” he said.
These and other issues make Heyman fearful about the future of the Canada-U.S. relationship as a whole under Trump.
“I think the greatest threat to Canada in the history of our country is a second Trump term,” he said.
“It doesn’t mean a tsunami is coming, but if you know there’s a warning, you have a choice: You can sit down and order another pina colada on the beach or go to higher ground. This is a choice that Canada will have to make after November 5.
—With file from Sean O’Shea of Global
© 2024 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.
