Could Frontier Airlines and Spirit Airlines be merging after all?
“This is my prediction,” the CEO of a competing low-cost airline told TPG.
Talks have been going on for years about the possibility of the country’s two major budget carriers joining forces.
soul and range Merger explored in 2022but the soul withdrew from negotiations Instead of pursuing a marriage with JetBlue – finally a deal stayed in court By the Biden administration.
Then, late last year, The Wall Street Journal informed The airline has resumed acquisition talks. However, the deal reportedly got separated day before soul Announced that it has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection,
Spirit’s financial turmoil – caused by rising debt, declining revenues and a myriad of other factors – came amid turmoil for budget airlines overall.
A tough scenario for budget airlines
In recent years, the low-cost end of the US airline sector has been lost to larger “legacy” carriers, which boast long-haul international routes. Travelers are craving right nowNot to mention, large carriers offer perks like premium cabins, lie-flat seats, and highly attractive frequent flyer and credit card programs, which have played a big role in profitability since the coronavirus pandemic.
Some people in the industry – United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby, most vocally – are predicted demise Some budget airlines, notably Frontier and Spirit. These carriers have long been known for offering ultra-low base fares, but most add fees for other flight services.
In a wide-ranging interview with TPG last month, fellow low-cost airline executive David Neeleman, CEO of Breeze Airways, offered his opinion.
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“I think Spirit and Frontier will survive,” Neeleman said. “But, I think it would be a lot easier if they merged. If they became one.”
Asked if he would accurately predict a future merger between the two carriers, Neeleman didn’t mince words: “Yes,” he said.
Both airlines have repeatedly declined to comment on any pending merger or acquisition talks. It may also be worth noting that the incoming Trump administration is widely expected to take a less stringent regulatory stance than the prior administration, which would perhaps encourage a further consolidation effort.
Low-cost airlines eye premium offerings
Either way, Neeleman said he generally agrees with a candid assessment made by United’s Kirby about the state of the U.S. airline industry — namely, the advantages of Chicago-based carriers over budget carriers (of which Breeze is one). About this.
Repeatedly in 2024, Kirby emphasized United’s “structural, enduring and irreversible” advantage over Delta Air Lines as well as in the industry.
Now that the major carriers have eliminated most change fees and added their own cheap, no-frills basic economy fares, Kirby and others have questioned if similar fares are available on full-service carriers. Why would travelers choose a budget carrier? ,
Other budget airline executives have dismissed predictions of the industry’s demise.
Frontier CEO Barry Biffle addressed the claim in an interview with TPG last month, saying sarcastically, “It’s ridiculous.”
But Neeleman offered a slightly different approach.
Neeleman said, “Scott (Kirby) has figured out a way to get people on United the same way they’re getting on Spirit, knowing that if they can come to United and fly any Spirit Will not choose to blow.”
“If you get on a United Airlines (Boeing 737) Max 9 (jet) today, it’s completely configured for what people want,” Neeleman added, noting United’s offerings range from first class to extra legroom. to bare-bones options.
It’s an extensive menu of amenities that travelers can also find on Delta and American Airlines. Such diversity is also working across a rapidly growing list of budget carriers: Frontier announced new first-class-style seats in December, Southwest plans new extra-legroom rows for 2026 and JetBlue has a Plans are to add a domestic first class cabin. (Neeleman is perhaps best known in the US for founding JetBlue in 2000).
Breeze sees opportunity
Today, Neeleman thinks travelers’ changing preferences — namely, a craving for extra spacious rows, premium seats and more options overall — bode well for his latest startup, Breeze. The airline was launched in 2021 at the peak of the coronavirus pandemic.
Since its launch, the Utah-based airline has offered free bags, Wi-Fi service and first class-esque recliners for passengers who select its “best” fares. These fares are an alternative to classic budget airline low fares (“good”) for those looking for a bargain.
“When I go up against those guys,” Neeleman said of Spirit and Frontier, “we do really well. Because people want to blow the breeze.”
Of course, their airline may face more competition in the coming years, as travelers find more and more options for extra space on low-cost airlines’ planes. This is a major reason Breeze is “really seriously considering” increasing the number of “best” seats on its Airbus A220, Neeleman said.
He said, “We started with 24 (first class seats on board) and we got down to 12, and I think we’re actually seriously considering going back to 16 because there’s so much demand, ” Airlines can reconfigure their planes, he said. “overnight” to make such changes.
International flights on the horizon
But what about international service?
The last time I spoke to Neeleman, about eight months ago, he teased a Upcoming International Expansion Providence’s Rhode Island TF Green International Airport (PVD) is involved in major long-term development plans.
In fact, Breeze’s fellow startup airline, Avello – which also launched in 2021 – punch it With service to New Mexico, Jamaica, and the Dominican Republic from Hartford’s Bradley International Airport (BDL) and North Carolina’s Raleigh-Durham International Airport (RDU). BDL and RDU are airports where two newcomer airlines have concentrated highly.
Neeleman cited delays in Federal Aviation Administration approval that would allow Breeze to fly its planes internationally. He told TPG that the process should be completed by the end of March.
“And then we can go to Hawaii, like the North Atlantic – mainly to the British Isles and Ireland. Places like that,” he said.
However, first up?
“Mexico, Dominican Republic, Jamaica, things like that,” he said.
Breeze currently offers 280 nonstop flights — and it has no competition on 86% of them, the carrier noted this month.
Its growth is expected to continue in 2025. Its seat count is set to grow by nearly 49% in the first half of this year compared to the same period last year, according to data from aviation analytics firm Cirium.
Whether that focus is on international or domestic flights, or economy or premium cabins, remains to be seen amid a historic shift in passenger preferences. Stay tuned.
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