Liberals face storm clouds at Halifax cabinet meeting
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau Finance Minister Stephen Harper begins a three-day cabinet retreat in Halifax on Sunday, where the themes will be fairness and Canada-U.S. relations, but the feeling is still one of déjà vu.
A year ago in Charlottetown, the cabinet hoped that its annual post-summer retreat and the massive cabinet shuffle that preceded it would breathe new life into the Liberal government.
Spoiler alert: it’s not.
Trudeau and his team are so far behind the Conservatives in the polls that if they had been on track, they would have been overtaken by now. And with the next election just a year away, the road to recovery is narrowing by the day.
Interest rates began to fall. Inflation returned to normal. Wage growth was strong.
But housing costs and availability remain extremely difficult, food prices are still high and the Liberals have been unable to counter Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s message that life has become more expensive and more dangerous under Trudeau.
In June, the Liberals lost a long-held Toronto seat to the Conservatives, further eroding what remained of the party’s fragile confidence in its ability to pull off a miraculous comeback with Trudeau still at the helm.
The cabinet met briefly online over the summer to approve some appointments, but the working dinner that kicks off the retreat on Sunday will mark the first in-person meeting since the byelection.
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Marci Surkes, director of strategy at government relations firm Compass Rose and a former Liberal Party staffer, said most cabinet retreats are spent 90 per cent on government business and 10 per cent on policy and caucus management. This time around, she added, there may be more emphasis on the latter, particularly in more informal conversations on the sidelines of debates.
“I think what’s on the agenda for this retreat is probably even less important than just the fact that it’s a meeting,” she said.
This government “desperately needs” a fresh start, she said. But it may be about being more responsive to the constant changes happening in the world and in Canada, rather than trying to plan every step of the next six to 12 months before the vote.
“I think the reality of this retreat is that in some ways it’s less about the agenda and the programming and more about having real, frank conversations about where they stand and whether they have the energy, the courage, the ideas and the will to continue,” Surkes said.
The July 2023 cabinet shuffle saw seven ministers removed and seven new positions added, while 22 of the remaining 30 ministers were moved to other positions. Only minor changes have been made since then, and Trudeau has so far chosen not to reshuffle the cabinet until this fall.
Surkes noted that some of the fallout from that 2023 shakeup is still being felt.
The Toronto-St. Paul’s byelection, which the Liberals lost in June, as well as an upcoming byelection in the Montreal riding of Lasalle-Émard, came after former cabinet ministers who lost their portfolios — Carolyn Bennett and David Lametti — chose to leave politics altogether.
Bennett’s Toronto seat was lost to the Conservatives after being a Liberal stronghold for nearly 30 years, and Lametti’s is at risk of being taken by the NDP when that vote comes Sept. 16, which Surkes said would be a “devastating blow.”
While the agenda may not be as exciting as the policy topics covered at the retreat, ministers have a clear agenda for their discussions. The retreat includes a full day of meetings Monday on housing, equity and affordability, and the middle class.
Tuesday is all about Canada-U.S. relations. Trudeau launched a new Team Canada mission to the United States earlier this year to advance Canada’s interests ahead of the presidential election.
The strategy, which Surkes jokingly called the “maple charm offensive,” is aimed at bolstering Canada’s defences in case Donald Trump is re-elected to the White House in November, but there are still irritants in the relationship even if Kamala Harris takes office.
Harris’ meteoric rise in the U.S. could be one of the things that gives liberals a boost. Her Democratic Party and liberals align on many policy fronts, from school lunches to women’s reproductive rights to climate change and clean energy.
What is not lost on many liberals is that President Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw from the presidential race has sparked a sudden surge of energy and momentum among Democrats.
Speculation about Trudeau’s future has been a favourite game in Canadian political circles for years, even though the candidate has not suggested he plans to step down. Surkes says what happened to the Democrats won’t force Trudeau to follow Biden’s lead.
“I expect the Liberals to borrow a lot of techniques and language, but I don’t think they’re going to see a radical change in who’s going to be at the front of the stage and on the podium. I don’t know if that’s what’s in store for the Liberals in the coming weeks,” she said. “But I’m confident that a lot of what we’re seeing there will be reflected in what’s going to happen here over the next six months in terms of the agenda.”
© 2024 The Canadian Press
